How prediction market pricing works
In prediction markets, price and probability are basically the same thing. A contract trading at $0.62 implies a 62% chance. A contract at $0.25 implies a 25% chance. This makes prediction markets easy to compare with betting odds once you convert them properly.
Worked example
A prediction market price is implied probability written as a price between $0.00 and $1.00. For a contract trading at $0.62:
- $0.62 = 62.00% implied probability.
- That converts to about 1.61 decimal odds.
- The same price is roughly -163 in American odds.
Why this calculator is useful
This helps you compare prediction markets with betting markets, understand whether a price looks rich or cheap, and translate percentages into familiar betting odds. It is especially useful for users switching between sportsbooks, exchanges, and prediction market platforms.
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FAQ
Is a $0.62 price always exactly a 62% chance? It is the market-implied probability before considering fees, liquidity, spread, or your own judgment.
Can I compare prediction prices with bookmaker odds? Yes. Convert both into probability or decimal odds so the prices are easier to compare.